Putin's War, Week 132. Russia's Missile Blitz Meets Ukraine's Drone Blitz

By / / Gov & Politics / 26 minutes of reading



Here we are at week 132 of Putin’s glorious re-establishment of the Romanov Empire to see how things are going. You’ll note that I didn’t write an update last week, not because there wasn’t stuff happening but because my give-a-crap circuit breaker suddenly tripped and left me with no motivation. I’ll promise that I might try harder in the future.

The big story this week has been a sudden upturn in the war of attrition both sides are waging.

On August 26, the Russians launched one of their largest airstrikes of the war. After a 45-day absence of large-scale Russian missile strikes, Monday brought one of the largest strikes of the war. The Russians fired at least 127 ballistic and cruise missiles and 109 Iranian-made Shahed attack drones. Of this onslaught, the Ukrainian Air Force claims it successfully intercepted 102 missiles and 99 Shaheds. While a signal achievement, it also meant that 25 missiles and 10 Shaheds hit Ukraine.

In total, the radio engineering troops of the Air Force detected and tracked 236 means of enemy air attack: 127 missiles and 109 attack UAVs:

  • 3 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from the airspace of the Ryazan and Lipetsk regions – russia;
  • 6 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from the Kursk and Voronezh regions of the Russian Federation. and from Crimea;
  • 77 Kh-101 cruise missiles from Tu-95MS aircraft from the airspace of the Volgograd region and the Caspian Sea region;
  • 28 Kalibr cruise missiles from surface/underwater carriers in the eastern part of the Black Sea;
  • 3 Kh-22 cruise missiles from the airspace of the Voronezh region. –Rf.;
  • 10 Kh-59/Kh-69 guided air missiles from Su-57, Su-34 aircraft from the airspace of the Belgorod region. and from the Mariupol area;
  • 109 Shahed-131/136 attack UAVs – launch areas of Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Kursk, Yeysk – Russia, Chauda – Crimea.

All available weapons and equipment were involved in repelling the air attack: aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces of the Air Force, mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine and electronic warfare units. In total, as a result of the air battle, 201 air targets were shot down – 102 missiles and 99 attack UAVs:-

  • 1 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missile;
  • 1 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile;
  • 1 Kh-22 cruise missile;
  • 99 Kh-101, Kalibr cruise missiles, Kh-59/69 guided air missiles;
  • 99 Shahed-131/136 attack UAVs.

In addition, several UAVs were lost on the territory of Ukraine, and two more crossed the state border with the republic of Belarus.

If the Kremlin thinks this will deter Ukrainian drone attacks in Russia, they are probably mistaken.

August 27 brought ten ballistic or cruise missiles and 81 Shahed, of which Ukraine was able to kill five missiles and 60 Shahed.

August 29: 3 missiles (2 killed) and 74 Shahed (60 killed)

August 30: 1 missile and 18 Shahed (16 killed)

August 31: 5 missiles and 52 Shahed (24 killed)

September 1: 1 missile and 12 Shahed (8 killed)

September 2: 25 missiles (22 killed) and 23 Shahed (20 killed)

All told, in a week, Russia launched 172 missiles (41 made it to their target areas) and 369 Shahed (86 penetrated air defenses).

The city of Kharkiv has become the favorite target of Russian strikes. I suspect this is because it is so close to the Russian border that the air defense umbrella for that city is suboptimal.

The goal of this attack seem to be two-fold. First, they are targeting the Ukrainian civilian population with the intent of driving down morale and the will to fight. As a historical note, this has failed every time it has been tried. The Blitz of London and US/British attacks on German and Japanese cities only succeeded in hardening popular opinion in favor of the government. The second objective seems to be Ukraine’s power grid.

Ukraine was not sitting on its hands while this was happening.

Dozens of drones reportedly targeted several Russian regions overnight on Sept. 1, including Moscow, Tver, Voronezh, Tula, Kaluga, Bryansk, Belgorod, Lipetsk, and Kursk, according to local officials.

The Baza Telegram news channel, which is closely associated with Russia’s security services, reported that loud explosions were heard near the Konakovo Power Station in the Tver region, one of the largest energy producers in central Russia.

The Kyiv Independent could not immediately verify these claims.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin claimed that at least 10 drones were downed in Russia’s capital region. One of the drones was reportedly destroyed near the Moscow Oil Refinery, according to Sobyanin. He said that there was no damage or threat to the refinery’s production process.

The refinery, owned by Gazprom Neft, the oil division of Russian gas giant Gazprom, is located in southeastern Moscow. No damage to civilian infrastructure or casualties were reported.

Additionally, some 27 drones were shot down over the Bryansk region in southwestern Russia, the region’s governor, Alexander Bogomaz said via his official Telegram channel.

To give an idea of the scale of the attack, Russia claims to have shot down 158 drones. The attacks against Moscow were successful despite Moscow’s air defenses.

Bataysk Airbase, Rostov Oblast

Atlas Oil Depot, Rostov Oblast

Ryazan Power Plant, Ryazan Oblast

This is the fifth-largest power plant in Russia.

Konakovo Power Plant, Tver Oblast

Moscow Oil Refinery, Moscow Oblast

Kashira Power Plant, Moscow Oblast

There were some immediate results. Russia has now declared oil production data a state secret; other Russian economic data has been classified since last year.

The Russian missile blitz reopened the debate on limiting the use of Western-supplied weapons to strike targets deep in Russia. Right now, the restrictions are serving one purpose: giving Russian weapons systems a sanctuary; see Biden White House Establishes Sanctuaries for Russian Forces Attacking Ukraine; Does This Sound Familiar?

The opposition to allowing Ukraine to strike at critical Russian military facilities has become more of a religion than a policy preference. The same magazine that told us in January 2022 that modern weapons would not make any difference to a Russian invasion is now telling us that demolishing headquarters, command and control centers, logistics bases, and troop concentrations is a “false promise.”

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby agrees.

The fact is that allowing deep strikes into Russia would bring Russian military operations in Ukraine to a standstill and probably create a rollback in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

And it would be a rare week that Putin or one of his catchfarts didn’t promise red war if the West doesn’t back off. 

Here are some of my past updates.

Putin’s War, Week 130. White House Says the Quiet Part Out Loud and a Storm Gathers in Southern Ukraine – RedState

Putin’s War, Week 129. The Invasion of Kursk Continues, Putin Unhappy, and the White House Befuddled – RedState

Putin’s War, Week 128. Russia Invaded – RedState

Putin’s War, Week 127. F-16s Arrive

Putin’s War, Week 126. Ukraine and Hungary Square Off, More Peace Talk by Putin, and the Escalation Flop – RedState

Putin’s War, Week 125. North Korea Sending Food to Russia Was Not on My Bingo Card

Putin’s War, Week 124. NATO Summit Meets and Putin Levels a Hospital

Putin’s War, Week 123. F-16s Wait in the Wings, More Weapons Arrive, and the Momentum Shifts – RedState

Putin’s War, Week 122. Zelensky Scores, Putin Flops, and Crimea Under Fire 

Putin’s War, Week 121. Putin Threatens, Zelensky Negotiates, and the White House Sends Lots of Missiles 

Putin’s War, Week 120. Zelensky Gets Security Agreement With the US and the Repo Man Comes for Russia

For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.

Politico-Strategic Level

Zelensky Reshuffles Government

Zelensky requested the resignations of several top cabinet ministers. Some of them will remain in the government but in other posts. Don’t ask me what it means.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is making the biggest shake-up of Kyiv’s wartime government, replacing the foreign affairs minister and other senior officials. 

The sweeping changes rattled some of Zelenskyy’s critics, who expressed concern that the reshuffle was a way for the president to further consolidate power by appointing loyalists. 

Foreign affairs minister Dmytro Kuleba was the most prominent among a series of resignations on Wednesday that also included strategic industries minister Oleksandr Kamyshin, justice minister Denys Malyuska, Iryna Vereshchuk, deputy prime minister overseeing occupied territories, and Vitaliy Koval, head of the state property fund. 

Zelenskyy has said the reshuffle was part of an effort to “give new strength” to Ukraine’s institutions but provided scant details about why, specifically, he has asked for the resignations of Kuleba and half a dozen other senior cabinet members.

Strike in Poltava

Two ballistic missiles hit the Military Institute of Telecommunications and Information Technology and a hospital in Poltava. At least 50 persons were killed and 200 injured. As a note, Ukraine has several technical schools and universities that are military-themed but not necessarily affiliated with the armed forces. I can’t tell at this point if the training center was a legit target, but we know with some certainty that the nearby hospital was not. The site seems to have been chosen to produce casualties and because it was not under Patriot coverage.

First F-16 Lost

The first Ukrainian F-16 was lost during the major Russian missile strike on August 26. The plane’s veteran pilot, Lieutenant Colonel Oleksii Mes. was also killed.

The Russians claim one of their missiles shot down the aircraft, but that seems unlikely. The incident is under investigation, but the prime suspect is that Mes’s fighter was hit by a Ukrainian air defense missile, most likely a Patriot. The fact that President Zelensky fired Air Force commander General Mykola Oleshchuk shortly after the crash gives weight to the friendly fire theory.

Strikes Urged Against NATO Bases

As part of my updates, I read a lot of stuff on the war from many perspectives. One thing that has been illustrative is that Putin’s Western mouthpieces, here I’m looking at Douglas Macgregor, David Sacks, John Mearsheimer, and that ilk, have been declaring for going on three years that Russia could win the war in Ukraine any time it wants to, all it has to do is really try instead of losing 1,000+ men every day, killed or wounded, for sh**s and grins. The people that disagree with them are the semi-official Russian milblogger community. Take this for instance.

Intelligence, Propaganda, and Bulls***

Speaking of reading a lot of stuff…a lot of what I read is pro-Russian dreck that specializes in taking Ukrainian images and videos, removing the watermarks, and portraying them as being Russian. Some of it is just sloppy. The account @clashreport trends heavily in the pro-Russian direction, but I can’t figure out if it is a conscious effort or if the account owner is stupid or the account owner thinks we’re stupid, or some combination of factors. For instance. take this video of an alleged Ukrainian MLRS strike in Belgorod city.

What is wrong with that description is that Belgorod is barely within GLMRS range, there is only one explosion when an MLRS typically fires multiple rounds, GLMRS rounds are GPS-guided, and there isn’t anything around that looks like a target. Both impacts (0:03 and 0:12) are missing “explosions.” The event at 0:12 is devoid of anything resembling a flash. This is because these are not random missile strikes hitting random real estate at their maximum range.

Belgorod was under a drone attack when the film was made. Russian surface-to-air missiles were being used.

To be clear, I think the Ukrainians would be absolutely justified in lobbing missiles into Belgorod the way Russia is doing to Ukrainian cities. There is no evidence that Ukraine has a policy of targeting civilians or is profligate with its use of high-value munitions.

The Nazis entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them. At Rotterdam, London, Warsaw, and half a hundred other places, they put their rather naive theory into operation. They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind.

— Air Marshal Sir Arthur Travers “Bomber” Harris

Lukashenko Demands Attention

Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko continues to struggle for relevance. In my last update, I posted about him blowing hot and cold on peace and war; see Putin’s War, Week 130. The White House Says the Quiet Part Out Loud, and a Storm Gathers in Southern Ukraine. That pattern continues.

After removing troops from the Ukraine-Belarus frontier, which freed up forces that made the invasion of Kursk possible, Lukashenko ordered them back to the border. Ominously, the vehicles have acquired a “B” tactical sign, reminiscent of the “Z” used for the “special military operation.”

However, during the Russian missile attack of August 29, a Belarusian fighter intercepted and shot down a Russian Shahed drone.

He also claimed that NATO is wooing him to attack Russia.

Ukraine Cuts Off Russian Gas

Paradoxically, most Russian natural gas headed for Western Europe runs through Ukraine. This provides both Russia and Ukraine with money for the ongoing war. Ukraine’s contract with Russia to allow the use of pipelines through Ukraine expires at the end of 2024 and will not be renewed.

Ukraine will not extend the agreement on gas transit from Russia to Europe, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at a press conference. His words are quoted by the Ukrainian edition of Hromadske.

“No one will extend the agreement with Russia. This is the end of it. As for the transit of gas from other companies, if the request of some of our European colleagues continues, we will consider their requests. I don’t know what my old grandfather was talking about in Azerbaijan. I’m not sure about gas. I think there are other issues,” the Ukrainian president said.

In June, Bloomberg reported on the negotiations between European officials and the Ukrainian leadership on the extension of the contract. One of the options under consideration was the purchase of gas from Azerbaijan and its transit to Europe through Russian pipelines. Such a scheme would allow Europe to abandon Russian gas.

The contract for the transit of gas from Russia through the territory of Ukraine expires at the end of 2024. The search for alternative options for the use of Ukraine’s gas transportation system and negotiations with Azerbaijan was also confirmed by Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview with Bloomberg.

Curious

Russians Warned of Deep Ukrainian Strikes to Come

Peak Russia

Operational Level

If you’ve ever worked in a bureaucracy, the idea of bureaucratic fiefdoms fighting each other over power and perks to the detriment of the organization and its mission is not news. The Russian Army is dependent on civilian vehicles for nearly all operations. The Russian Army was built around the idea that units would be supplied from a railhead no more than 40 miles from the front, and trucks were allocated on the basis of making multiple short hauls every day. That isn’t the way things have worked out. This war is fought at much longer distances from railheads, and the fleet of military trucks has been devastated by combat and maintenance losses. Soldiers driving civilian vehicles are causing a lot of accidents, and the Russian Army’s ruthless and famously corrupt Military Police are cracking down. Read the whole saga in this thread.

Overview

After five days of increased operational tempo, reported Russian attacks declined by about one-third. Air strikes and artillery strikes also dropped precipitously. The focus of Russian efforts remain in Donetsk where small advances were made.

New Weapons

Hrim Upgrade

Last Tuesday, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed that Ukraine had successfully tested a new ballistic missile. 

Ukraine has successfully carried out its first domestically produced ballistic missile test launch, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday.

“It may be too early to talk about it, but I want to share it with you,” the president said at a press conference at the Ukraine 2024 Independence Forum in Kyiv.

The consensus is that this missile is an extended-range version of the existing Hrim/Hrim-2 tactical ballistic missile. This missile is reputed to have a 500km/310-mile range, or about two-thirds more than the ATACMS 300km range. If true, it will vastly increase Ukraine’s opportunities to hit targets deep in Russia without foreign approval.

Drone Bomber

Combat Operations

Tank Combat in Pokrovsk

In the first video, a Russian BTR-82 armored personnel carrier is engaged by a Ukrainian tank as it is unloading.

This next video provides more context for the engagement. The range is so close that the tank round passes through the BTR (this explains why you can see the crew un-assing it at 0.22 in the first video) and explodes another 50 meters down range. 

Drone Detector

Several weeks ago, I posted on Ukraine using cell phones and some commercial software to construct an expedient direction finder for incoming drones. Ukraine’s defense industry is riffing off that concept by rolling out aerostats to detect drones when launched so the launch crews can be engaged. 

Luck of the Draw

This wounded Russian soldier encountered a Ukrainian drone that dropped him a water bottle and surrender instructions.

This one didn’t. (If you are squeamish, don’t watch it).

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

Retrain and Retest

A pair of HIMARS warheads hit a Russian Army training site. In my opinion, and I’m open to contradiction by any red-legs reading, they should’ve gone for a time-on-target with both missiles detonating simultaneously. That is just fine-tuning a strike that gutted a unit before it arrived on the battlefield.

Helicopter Gunners vs. Shahed Drones

Anti-Drone Drones

The use of FPV drones against moderately expensive Russian reconnaissance drones is a lot more widespread than I’d imagined. Check out this video of air-to-air encounters.

Field Discipline

Mike Ford has talked about a possible 1917 moment in the Russian Army for weeks. I think he has a point. Troops will put up with a lot of abuse if they perceive some sort of usefulness but a lot less when it appears gratuitous. Victorious troops will tolerate more gratuitous bulls*** than troops stuck in a stalemate or losing. Read the whole thread, and you can see how the probability of substantial numbers of Russian troops balking at an attack order increases day by day.

Booby Traps

Unironically, a Russian soldier complains that the Ukrainians are using booby traps.

Flamethrower Drone

This device allegedly uses thermite as a combustible material. I haven’t seen images of the drone yet, but it would have to be hefty to carry a militarily significant quantity of thermite.

Aftermath.

Too-Much-Time-On-Their-Hands Drone

Russia Has Unlimited Manpower

Dmitry Rogozin, a long-time fixture in Russian politics who is now reduced to serving as “senator” from Occupied Zaporizhzhia, made a plea for technical specialists to join a new military unit. He pleads for 

“representatives of the military-industrial complex, ambitious employees of defense enterprises, engineers, designers, programmers, technologists, drone pilots, specialists in the field of communication, intelligence, electronic warfare, gunners, mechanics and drivers, medics, workers…”

They are even willing to accept women. I only mention the latter because Putin’s tools online routinely claim that young Ukrainian women volunteering to serve their nation in its fight for independence is a sure sign Ukraine is losing.

Given that state industries like the Russian state space agency Roscosmos are tasked with forming military units from their employees for service on the front lines (Putin’s War, Week 74. The Crack in the Russian Wall Appears and Ben & Jerry’s Employees Join the Russian Army – RedState), the odds are these “technical specialists” will end up assaulting or defending trenches in Donbas.

This is a great thread on how Russian police are incentivized to force people into the military.

Russian Front

Kursk Offensive

Not much has changed since my Kursk Update (Russia Invaded, Week 3. State of Play). Very little information is coming out on the Ukrainian side so reporting is relying on Russian milbloggers. There have been marginal Ukrainian gains.

Kursk seems to continue drawing Russian troops from other areas of the front, indicating that Russia may yet make a push to regain lost territory.

Northern Front

Kharkiv

Lyptsi-Vovchansk

The lines here remain stable. Indications are that the Russian forces have been stripped to provide a defense in Kursk.

Kupyansk-Kreminna-Svatove

Positional combat operations continue, the front lines remain static.

Donbas

Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka

The lines remains stable in this area.

The Russians continue to push away around Chasiv Yar. They have made positional gains but nothing that seems to have the potential to turn into a breakthrough.

Pokrovsk

The focus of Russian effort is Pokrovsk. This is on the northern edge of the former Avdiivka Salient. It is the area that became destabilized during a relief-in-place operation and nearly turned into a successful Russian tactical breakthrough. As you can see, the Russians have been going at this area hammer-and-tongs. 

None of their advances are particularly large, but they have made a lot of them.

There are signs that Ukraine is taking steps to stop this advance.

Partisan Activity

Or it might be an outraged husband or father; the effect is the same.

Southern Front

Zaporizhzhia

Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka

The lines remain stable in this area.

Kherson

The front lines remain stable

There are rumors that Ukraine is ginning up an amphibious operation, but I remain skeptical.

Rear Areas

Crimea

Partisan Activity

Russia

Engels Airbase, Saratov, Saratov Oblast

Engels Airbase, the home of a Russian strategic bomber group was hit for the fifth time since the war started. In addition to the drone strikes it has had a pilot assassinated. 

BACKGROUND

The War in Ukraine Heats up as Drones Attack Russian Airbase Only 100 Miles From Moscow

Putin’s War, Week 44. Drones Strike Russian Strategic Bomber Base…Again…and Prigozhin Makes His Move

Putin’s War, Week 102. Zaluzhny Is Out, Syrsky Is In, and the Ukraine Aid Bill Advances – RedState

Putin’s War, Week 127. F-16s Arrive – RedState

Russian sources claim all drones were either shot down or hit civilian targets because, of course, they do.

What’s Next

The jury is still out on the status of the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk. It is too early to tell if it has run its course or is being resupplied for a continuation. The Ukrainians seem to have stabilized the slow-moving disaster that was brewing in Donetsk. I think there is a better-than-even chance that last week’s missile blitz by Russia will result in Ukraine being given the green light to use US weapons for strikes in Russia. I also think the sheer bloody-mindedness of Russia’s attacks on civilian targets will result in more air defense equipment for Ukraine.

We’re approaching the end of the 2024 fighting season and a presidential election, and it would be to Ukraine’s great benefit if it could show progress on the ground. Ukraine has about six weeks before the rains set in, bringing the year to a close. 



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