There are just three weeks left in the 2024 NFL regular season, and we’re starting to think about the 2025 draft, which begins on April 24 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the projected first-round draft order for all 32 teams using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
Each week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 20,000 times. Game probabilities are based primarily on the model’s team ratings and game locations. The draft order is determined by the records the model projects for each team after 17 games, as well as each team’s average draft position across the simulations.
Our FPI predictions still have the New York Giants picking No. 1 after Week 15, but how does the rest of the order stack up? Check out our full projections below, and check back every Tuesday for updates throughout the season.
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Average draft position: 2.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 37.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 88.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.9%
Average draft position: 3.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 23.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 87.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.7%
Average draft position: 3.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 85.0%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.1%
Average draft position: 4.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 64.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 98.0%
Average draft position: 5.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 6.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 59.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.8%
Average draft position: 5.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 51.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.3%
Average draft position: 5.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 49.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.0%
Average draft position: 8.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick:
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 10.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 88.8%
Average draft position: 8.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 86.5%
Average draft position: 9.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 77.7%
Average draft position: 12.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 13.2%
Average draft position: 12.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 17.4%
Average draft position: 13.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 10.1%
Average draft position: 14.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.0%
Average draft position: 14.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.1%
Average draft position: 17.1
Average draft position: 17.9
Average draft position: 19.1
Average draft position: 20.6
Average draft position: 21.7
Average draft position: 22.3
Average draft position: 22.4
Average draft position: 22.8
Average draft position: 24.0
Average draft position: 24.6
Average draft position: 26.1
Average draft position: 26.4
Average draft position: 26.8
Average draft position: 27.7
Average draft position: 28.0
Average draft position: 28.8
Average draft position: 29.0
