The new NPR/PBS News/Marist National Poll shows a neck-in-neck presidential race—but one number that has to be freaking out Democrats in advance of Tuesday night’s debate is the move among independents since August. That figure has moved a stunning 14 percent in favor of Donald Trump:
Among independents, Trump (49%) edges Harris (46%). This is a 14-point shift from August when Harris was up 11 points over Trump in a multicandidate field.
Some of this shift can likely be attributed to independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropping out of the race and throwing his support toward the former president.
Overall, the poll shows an extremely tight race—which is good for Trump because he has outperformed polls in the past. Another way to put that is that pollsters and the media seem to consistently underestimate the true level of his support.
I mean NYT/Siena, Marist and Pew national polls, which are about as good as it gets, respectively show the race at -1, +1 and a tie, which very probably wouldn’t get it done in the Electoral College for Harris. The higher quality polling is if anything worse for her. https://t.co/UhmNPOs1vk
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 10, 2024
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Trump has also seen his support from Latinos rise:
Latino and independent voters have shifted in a new direction, and the race between Harris and Trump remains competitive. What’s next? You’ll want to check out our latest poll with NPR & PBS News.@NPR and PBS @NewsHour https://t.co/FFBaEOOk16 pic.twitter.com/hdsEUKik5U
— Marist Poll (@maristpoll) September 10, 2024
Trump has turned around his support among Latino voters, as well. In August, Harris led Trump among Latinos by 15 points in a multi-candidate field. Trump with 51% now edges Harris at 47%, a 19-point swing.
The poll also reveals that many voters will be paying close attention to Tuesday night’s debate and that it will likely sway their decision. Debates aren’t usually considered to be game-changers, but as we saw in July when Biden faceplanted and killed his reelection chances, this cycle is different. Many people still aren’t all that familiar with Kamala Harris, so what they see tonight will have a big impact.
A lot of people say they’ll tune in Tuesday night to the first presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Harris, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll. https://t.co/7IyNV3mIpO pic.twitter.com/h4CnECBwH4
— MemeStreamNews (@MemeStreamNews) September 10, 2024
70% of Americans will watch all or most of the presidential debate between Harris and Trump and an additional 23% say they won’t watch but will closely follow the news coverage of the debate.
30% of registered voters say the debate will help them a great deal or good amount in making their selection for president. 69%, though, think it will not help them very much or at all.
So grab your favorite beverage, turn on the TV, and then stop by to visit RedState’s live blog (link will be on our home page later today). We might be watching history this evening.
