There’s been a lot of focus on the swing state polls regarding the upcoming presidential election. That’s to be expected as the race will likely rise and fall on those states. Real Clear Politics polling has those states pretty tight at this point, but it’s also factoring in outlier polls like the Morning Consult that have weird things like Kamala Harris up by eight points in Michigan — she isn’t up eight there. So you have to sort of wade through all the craziness to get to some sense.
Gallup Poll Reveals Who Is More Popular – and It’s Devastating for Kamala Harris
However, there’s some data out of Virginia that I don’t think the Democrats were counting on. Before Joe Biden dropped out, there were some questions that the Commonwealth might be in play. Then came the switch and that discussion seemed to quiet. But people may need to ramp up that discussion again because it might still be in play.
According to a new poll from the University of Mary Washington, the election in Virginia is statistically tied.
“Vice President Kamala Harris (D) and former President Donald Trump (R) are locked in a tight presidential contest in Virginia, according to a new statewide survey from the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington,” the school said in a press release.
Harris holds 47% support compared to 46% for Trump in a recent survey of 1,000 adults, which Research America Inc. conducted from Sept. 3-9 for UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies.
📊 VIRGINIA poll by University of Mary Washington
2-WAY
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 46%
—
FULL FIELD
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟨 RFK Jr: 2%
🟪 Other: 2%
——
Senate
🟦 Tim Kaine (inc): 49%
🟥 Hung Cao: 43%
🟪 Other: 2%
—
Sept. 3-9 | 756 LV | ±3.7%https://t.co/1cseQv3DYe— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 20, 2024
In the head-to-head, it’s Harris 48 percent and Trump 46 percent, which is still within the margin of error. So, it would appear to be as close as other battleground states.
Notice in the full field, they’re still counting 2 percent for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. If those 2 percent were to walk over to Trump, that would be the difference right there.
“This new survey suggests Virginia should be getting a much closer look from both presidential campaigns,” explained Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington and director of UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies. “Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ‘swing state’ once again this year.”
If it is that close in Virginia, I think that’s another good sign of stronger Trump support in the other states than some might think.
It certainly looked positive in liberal Fairfax, where supporters were coming out with enthusiasm for Trump. This is extra fun because it aired on MSNBC. I’m sure that was probably giving some of their audience fits.
Early voting begins today in VIRGINIA where the latest polls show that state neck and neck.
Trump supporters are swarming the polls chanting “TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP!” and “Make America Great Again!”
We have the energy. We have the enthusiasm.
Let’s do the work. Let’s win. pic.twitter.com/sO1HqOKSiU
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) September 20, 2024
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin has been saying it’s in play and he was all in trying to get people out to vote. He explained how much closer it is now than in 2020.
Early voting starts in Virginia. Glenn Youngkin: “Vote early!”
“Inflation was unleashed under the Biden-Harris admin, and yet we have Kamala Harris saying that she wants to be the opportunity economy candidate.
People trust Donald Trump. He built a rip-roaring economy with high… pic.twitter.com/e3F2pO0ayv
— Eddie (@Eddies_X) September 20, 2024
