Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a lead over former President Donald Trump in several recent national polls. This marks a notable shift in the 2024 presidential race, which has already been quite eventful. According to a new poll conducted by Marquette Law School between July 24 and August 1, Harris leads Trump by eight percentage points among likely voters when third-party candidates are included. The survey shows Harris at 50 percent compared to Trump’s 42 percent.
This is a significant improvement over the Democrats’ position in May, when Biden was trailing Trump by three percentage points.
The poll also reveals Harris’s lead in a head-to-head matchup. Among registered voters, “Harris is the choice for president, with the support of 52 percent of registered voters, while Trump is the choice for 48 percent,” according to the Marquette Law School survey.
This trend is not isolated to a single poll. An earlier report detailed several different polls showing Harris leading her opponent.
By last Friday, Harris was leading in the national polling average, according to the aggregation website Race to the WH (White House), which collated 128 national polls and put Harris at 47 percent and Trump at 46.9 percent.
The polls which show Harris ahead were surveyed by poll aggregator 538 are YouGov/CBS News, RMG Research, The Economist and the Daily Kos/Civiqs.
YouGov/CBS News put Harris in the lead with 49 percent, compared with Trump’s 47 percent, after questioning 3,102 registered voters between July 30 and August 2. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.
RMG Research, which conducted its survey among 3,000 registered voters between July 29 and July 31, found Harris has a lead of 47 percent to Trump’s 42 percent.
The Economist/YouGov has Harris at 46 percent and Trump at 44 percent, after interviewing 1,610 people, 1,434 of which were registered voters, from July 27 to July 30, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Daily Kos/Civiqs put Harris at 49 percent to Trump’s 45 percent. Researchers surveyed 1,123 registered voters between July 27 and July 30. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Not all of the polling is in Harris’ favor. As of this writing, the RealClearPolling average puts her only one point ahead of Trump. It is also worth noting that the Marquette study polled only 800 people nationwide. Also, Rasmussen’s most recent survey, conducted after Harris announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, showed Trump leading the vice president by five points.
These numbers aren’t looking great for Trump, who has enjoyed favorable polling numbers, especially since the assassination attempt. But it is worth noting that much of Harris’ favorability is coming from the expected polling bump after she became the nominee and announced her running mate. There is a decent chance that the honeymoon phase will soon wane, and the numbers might even out.
Fundraising numbers are also an important factor. Harris has raised about $310 million so far compared to Trump’s $140 million in July.
Still, it would not be wise for the right to discount this data. Harris is garnering a significant level of support.
The former president’s team appears to understand the situation, according to a Thursday report from The Washington Post. While Republicans were confident about victory after the assassination attempt, Harris’ favorable numbers have prompted them to temper their approach.
Some of Trump’s allies acknowledged that new obstacles have presented themselves. “We’ve hit a few speed bumps,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said.
Trump spokesman Steven Cheung expressed optimism despite the setbacks. “The Trump campaign has never taken anything for granted and we always fight like we’re the underdogs,” he told The Post.
Harris’ campaign is dominating the news cycle at the moment, which is an expected development since she just officially became the nominee. The vice president has also adopted a positive messaging strategy rather than relying solely on attacking her opponent. Moreover, she has been desperately avoiding the press and any unscripted encounters while giving rallies and playing to her strengths. The media has obliged, failing to so much as say a critical word about her blatant effort to dodge them.
Now is the time for Team Trump to find a way to disrupt Harris’ momentum instead of waiting for it to fade out on its own. There is still plenty of time between now and November. If the right wants to secure the White House, it must get serious about going after Harris on substance and policy rather than hyper-focusing on side issues.
