Joaquin Buckley looks to win his sixth consecutive fight as he takes on former interim UFC welterweight champion Colby Covington in the main event at UFC Fight Night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, with prelims at 7 p.m. on ESPN2/ESPN+).
Buckley (20-6), ESPN’s No. 9-ranked welterweight, has not lost since December 2022. Most recently, Buckley beat Stephen Thompson by third-round knockout at UFC 307 in October. Covington (17-4), No. 8 in ESPN’s divisional rankings, is coming off a loss to Leon Edwards in a challenge for the welterweight title in December 2023. Covington has lost three of his last five fights.
Brett Okamoto spoke to MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight Alan Jouban to get his perspective on the main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Welterweight: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley
Alan Jouban, MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight
How Covington wins: Covington’s last fight left me feeling that he was done. He didn’t do any of the things that we know him to do. Usually, Covington shoots for takedowns early, and I loved that about him because even if his opponent stuffed a takedown in the first 90 seconds, they knew there were five more of those coming every round. Against Edwards, he didn’t shoot his first takedown until the third round and he was throwing these slow kicks instead of using his boxing to set up takedowns. To win this fight, he has to do everything he didn’t against Edwards. I don’t see Covington finishing Buckley, so drag him into deep waters, use that pace and take risks with striking to set up takedowns.
How Buckley wins: Buckley’s grappling is underrated. He came into the UFC as a striker, but recently he’s been taking everybody down. Against Nursulton Ruziboev, Buckley took him down repeatedly and wasn’t worried about the threat of submissions. Buckley’s fight IQ has improved so much — he’s making all the right moves now. No one will expect Buckley to come in looking to wrestle, but I think he’ll walk Covington to the fence, which could create an opportunity to slam Covington to the ground. I think he’s in the right mental and technical space to do it.
X factor: Buckley’s physicality. He looks tremendous at 170 pounds. And he’s only 30 years old. Even if Covington can take him down with the more technical wrestling, Buckley has the level of physicality to just say, “Get off of me,” and explode up.
Prediction: Buckley wins. I have a hard time saying he will finish Covington, because if Covington fights Buckley like he fought Edwards, it’s hard to finish someone who isn’t taking any risks. Covington needs to be aggressive to win, but if he is too aggressive, it increases the odds of him getting knocked out.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Buckley to win (-290), over 1.5 rounds. This is a tough matchup for Covington. Not only has he not improved in any area of his game, but he also recently left his team and is essentially training on his own. That isn’t the best situation when going up against a fighter like Buckley. We already know what Covington will do — push forward with a menacing pace and try to wrestle Buckley for five rounds to a decision. However, if we know that, Buckley knows that as well. Buckley has good takedown defense, and with Covington’s lack of striking, I expect Buckley to stuff the takedowns and keep this fight on the feet, where he will have the advantage. If you want to keep it simple, take the money line and make Buckley the anchor of your parlay. If you want to get better odds, take Buckley to win and over 1.5 rounds.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card
Light heavyweight: Vitor Petrino vs. Dustin Jacoby
Jacoby to win (+250). This bet is a value play, as I don’t think the odds make any sense. Petrino is coming off a first-round submission loss to Anthony Smith, yet is a 3-to-1 favorite over a seasoned fighter who is the better striker. Jacoby is coming off a knockout loss to Dominick Reyes, but Reyes is a much better fighter than Petrino and someone who has fought the best in the world. Jacoby is the more talented striker here with a more versatile game. I’ll take that at plus money over the power of Petrino.
Women’s flyweight: Miranda Maverick vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth
Maverick to win inside the distance. Not to be disrespectful, but this will be the easiest matchup of Maverick’s UFC career thus far. There is nowhere in this fight that Horth is better than Maverick, so I expect a dominant performance here. I have no concerns that Horth only has one loss and has never been finished, because she’s never fought this level of competition.
Strawweight: Josefine Knutsson vs. Piera Rodriguez
Knutsson to win (-240). More than likely this is a win-or-go-home spot for Rodriguez. She has two losses in a row, where she got finished by submission and disqualified for headbutts — not the best look. Knutsson is much better on the feet and as good as Rodriguez on the ground. I would look at taking the Knutsson money line as a leg of a parlay to avoid having to bet on a method of victory. However, if you want better odds, Knutsson by decision would be the way to go.
