Donald Trump outperformed the polls in both 2016 and 2020, shocking the world by beating Hillary Clinton in his first election but losing to Biden in the second. Now, with the race between the former president and Democrat appointee nominee Kamala neck and neck, Democrats and pollsters are worried that he’ll beat the expectations once again—and return to the Oval Office.
Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman knows that polls don’t tell the whole story:
“Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016. And that’s one of the truths, is that Trump is going to be tough in Pennsylvania, and that’s absolutely the truth,” Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) said when asked whether he’s worried pollsters may be undercounting Trump’s support in his home state.
Democratic lawmakers are growing nervous that their party may once again feel lulled into a false sense of optimism amid polls showing Harris with small but consistent leads in three crucial states that make up the “blue wall”: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Fetterman’s Take on Trump and Pennsylvania Voters Is Bad News for Kamala Harris
Sen. Raphael Warnock is also concerned:
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D), who represents the swing state of Georgia, said it’s impossible to know who’s ahead at this point because many polls show Harris and Trump running neck and neck, within the margin of error.
“We know this election is going to be close. It’s going to be close in the battleground states, including Georgia, which is why I’m doing everything I can to make sure we put Georgia in our column,” he said. “The only poll that matters is Nov. 5, right?
“We talk about margin of error for a reason,” he said.
Why are they worried? Just look at the past:
Public polls had Trump trailing Biden by an average of 5 percentage points, consistently, during the final two months of the 2020 presidential campaign. But he ended up losing the key state of Pennsylvania to Biden by only 1.2 percentage points — 50 percent to 48.8 percent.
Likewise, public polls showed Trump trailing Clinton by between 3.5 points and 7 points in Pennsylvania during the final eight weeks of the 2016 campaign. Yet Trump ended up winning Pennsylvania despite never leading Clinton in any of the public polling averages of the Keystone State.
No polling showed @realDonaldTrump Trump beating Clinton in 2016.
Not one legacy media poll.
Notice ABC News perpetuated the “double-digit lead” lie for weeks.
Ignore the polls.
Watch the polling stations. pic.twitter.com/lJQaIiBKWi
— Andrea Tantaros (@AndreaTantaros) September 12, 2024
Dems are also nervous that Kamala will fail to bring in white working-class voters:
According to a new report from Politico, while members of the Democratic Party are publicly expressing confidence, behind closed doors, officials and allies fear that former President Donald Trump could shatter the Blue Wall he broke down eight years ago.
“Candidly, Trump has a solid, solid base of working-class people that have bought into his message,” Jimmy Williams, president of the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades, told Politico.
First There Was the Teamsters Poll, Now There Are Even More Union Members for Trump
The latest Real Clear Politics polling average shows Harris up by 2.2 nationally. If Trump outperforms expectations by a pretty small margin, as he has done in the past, he has a real shot at winning this thing. Dems are right to be nervous.
Don’t misread the DMR poll that gives Trump a 4-point lead in Iowa.
In Sept. 2020, this same poll had the race TIED 47-47. Trump went on to win by 8.
To lead by 4 now is well ahead of where he was last time.
Another example of Trump being stronger now than in 2016 or 2020. https://t.co/5ybPV2MYiF pic.twitter.com/T2ZlvLTTHp
— Tim Murtaugh (@TimMurtaugh) September 15, 2024
