Watching the media/left-wing euphoria on national and state-level polling numbers since Democrat elites forced Joe Biden out of the presidential race and installed Kamala Harris in his place has been an exercise in frustration mixed with sprinklings of hilarity along the way.
But not long after the Democrat National Convention, reality soon intruded and the Harris-Walz political honeymoon fizzled to some extent, with GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump edging her out earlier this month in a Siena/New York Times national poll, as we previously reported. This is something that had not been expected considering the six weeks of fawning coverage she received.
The poll also showed that voters were eager for a candidate who could bring about change… and viewed Trump as a change agent over Harris 53 percent to 25 percent, which no doubt was a major blow to the Harris campaign as she’s laughably been promoting herself as the change candidate despite being the current Vice President.
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And even though the pundit class and some polls declared Harris the “winner” of perhaps the final presidential debate of 2024, on the issues that matter most to the American people – like the economy and illegal immigration – Trump scored high marks with poll respondents and focus group participants, confirming that the impressions taken from voters of that debate were a bit more nuanced than the Usual Suspects let on in their reporting and commentary.
Fortunately, there are those in the polling industry who are willing to cut through all the spin and hype in order to get to the real story of where we are in the race, like CNN number cruncher Harry Enten, who has kept it real throughout the campaign season when Biden was the presumptive Democrat nominee and now with Harris as the actual nominee.
A lot of emphasis is typically put on national polling numbers during presidential election cycles as a way of sort of gauging the temperature of the electorate. But as Enten explained in his latest analysis, the national poll leads for Harris we’re seeing in some post-debate polling are not necessarily the wins her supporters think they are.
The reason, he noted, was that the scenario at this stage in the race is that Harris could conceivably “win” the popular vote but not the Electoral College, the latter of which of course is the one that matters most. The reason why is that the state races are far more competitive, with some showing Trump either ahead or just slightly behind and within the MOE:
“Right now, Harris is right now in that danger zone where basically about half the time, given that popular vote margin nationally, she would win. And so here’s the situation. Chance Harris wins the popular vote at this point, is about 70 percent. But the chance she wins the Electoral College is only about 50 percent. So, the bottom line is, at this hour, John, there’s about a 20 percent chance that Kamala Harris wins the popular vote but actually loses in the Electoral College.
So, we could be heading towards one of these splits that we saw in 2016 and in 2000, whereby one candidate, Kamala Harris, wins in the popular vote, but loses in the Electoral College.
Basically, at this hour, we‘re right in that sort of weird middle zone where we honestly don’t know what’s going to happen based upon the popular vote and that is why those national polls that show Kamala Harris ahead at this point really don’t matter that much.”
Watch:
WATCH: CNN’s data guru Harry Enten: “We could be heading towards one of these splits that we saw in 2016 and in 2000, whereby one candidate, Kamala Harris, wins in the popular vote, but loses in the Electoral College.”
“Basically, at this hour, we‘re right in that sort of weird… pic.twitter.com/5tB7EK4ncR
— TV News Now (@TVNewsNow) September 16, 2024
Relatedly, Enten also made the following observation:
“So basically you note that 2.5 point lead nationally here, right? OK, Harris’ chances, if she wins the popular vote, by two to three points, that chance she wins the Electoral College is only 53 percent. The bottom line is, once you have to get all the way north to about three to four points for Harris to have a clear – clear, clear chance. The majority, the clear majority chance of winning the Electoral College. If she only wins by less than two, look at that, only a 23 percent chance of winning.”
This is similar to conclusions drawn by Nate Silver, another data guru, in a pre-debate analysis he did:
I’d also note that Harris’s raw polling averages have DECLINED in most swing states since the start of the DNC. This data is NOT subject to the convention bounce adjustment. She’s had a run of pretty mediocre state polling. pic.twitter.com/smiCFiznQW
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 6, 2024
On the other hand, Trump just has to outperform his current polling numbers by one point to emerge victorious.
It’s fascinating (and nerve-wracking) to watch all of this play out, but it’s also a reminder that paying more attention to swing state polls versus national ones at this point in the race (and any other presidential race going forward) is where we’ll get perhaps the best feel for what might happen on Election Day.
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