An NFC wild card round rematch highlights the final game of Sunday’s Week 1 NFL slate as the Los Angeles Rams head to Ford Field to face the Detroit Lions (-4.5, 52.5) on Sunday Night Football.
The Lions (+1000) enter Week 1 as one of the most-bet teams to win the Super Bowl at ESPN BET. While the Rams currently have 30-1 Super Bowl odds and are +350 to win the NFC West.
With two of more high-powered offenses in the NFL and plenty of superstars from Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta to Puka Nucua and Cooper Kupp, the Sunday nightcap appears to be ripe for bettors to take advantage.
Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Game lines
Spread: Lions (-4.5)
Money line: Lions (-415), Rams (+180)
Over/Under: 52.5
First-half spread: Lions -3.5 (+102), Rams +3.5 (-125)
Rams total points: Over 21.5 -150/Under 21.5 +120
Lions total points: Over 27.5 -140/Under 27.5 +110
The props
Passing
Jared Goff total passing yards: 274.5 yards (Over (Even)/Under -130)
Matthew Stafford total passing yards: 274.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Rushing
Kyren Williams total rushing yards: 59.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
David Montgomery total rushing yards: 59.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Jahmyr Gibbs total rushing yards: 59.5 (Over +115/Under -145)
Blake Corum total rushing yards: 24.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Receiving
Amon-Ra St. Brown total receiving yards: 89.5 (Over (Even)/Under -130)
Puka Nacua total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Cooper Kupp total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Sam LaPorta total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Jameson Williams total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Demarcus Robinson total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Colby Parkinson total receiving yards: 24.5 (Over -130/Under (Even)
Jahmyr Gibbs total receiving yards: 19.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Kalif Raymond total receiving yards: 19.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Favorite picks
Pick: Blake Corum over 24.5 rushing yards.
While Kyren Williams was great last season for a Rams team that averaged 27.4 rushing attempts per game, Sean McVay has a history of using a committee approach, and the offense struggled when Williams was out last season. That’s why Los Angeles drafted Corum to help lighten Williams’ load. Corum had 505 rushing attempts over his last two seasons at Michigan, proving he can handle a heavy workload. He didn’t play in the preseason, which likely means the Rams were saving him for a key role. Plus, McVay mentioned Williams will return punts, another sign Corum will be involved. The Rams’ offensive line is one of the heaviest and highest-paid units, ranking 12th in run block win rate. — Eric Moody
Pick: Matthew Stafford, 275+ Passing Yards (-115)
Stafford has a good matchup against his old team, in his former home stadium, in a game that projects to be a track meet. According to ESPNBET, the Lions and Rams have by-far the highest scoring total line of the day at 52.5 points, so the expectation is that the ball should be moving all game. The Lions have one of the most potent offenses in the league, so Stafford and the Rams will likely need to move the ball through the air to keep pace. The Lions’ run defense is stronger than their pass defense, and the Rams enter this game with wideouts Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, as well as tight end Colby Parkinson, projected to have strong matchups. Stafford and Nacua torched the Lions in their playoffs matchup in January, with 181 of Stafford’s 367 passing yards going Nacua’s way. Stafford started and ended last season with a bang, throwing for more than 275 yards in three of his first four and five of his last six games, including the playoffs, and I look for him to start this season on a similar energy with a big performance against his former squad. — Andre Snellings
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Stats & Information
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The Lions were 12-5 ATS last season, tied with the Las Vegas Raiders for the best record in the NFL (14-6 ATS including playoffs). The Lions have finished among the top three teams against the spread in all three seasons under Dan Campbell. Campbell is 39-24 ATS as a head coach (.619), the best mark of any head coach to begin his career in the Super Bowl era (minimum three seasons). He is 35-16 ATS as Lions head coach (.686).
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The Lions are 3-0 ATS in Week 1 under Campbell (8-2 ATS in September). The Rams are 6-1 ATS in Week 1 under Sean McVay (13-7-3 ATS in September).
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The Rams are 15-9-3 ATS as at least 3-point underdogs under McVay, including playoffs (5-2-3 ATS with Matthew Stafford).
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Twelve of the Lions’ last 13 Week 1 games went over the total (last year went under).
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Lions games were 11-6 to the over last season, tied with the Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts for the highest over percentage.
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Prime-time unders are 70-42-1 over the last two seasons (35-23 last season). Sunday night games are 26-10 to the under over that span (13-5 each of last two seasons).
