Biggest questions, predictions and teams most likely impacted

Free agency looms but things had been relatively slow in the WNBA world. And then the dam broke Thursday.

Satou Sabally, considered one of the top free agents for 2025, announced in a media availability for Unrivaled that she will not be returning to the Dallas Wings, where she spent the first five seasons of her career.

A former first-team all-WNBA talent and Olympian with the German national team, Sabally will undoubtedly be one of the most coveted stars on the market as free agency gets underway this month. The most likely scenario: The Wings will core Sabally — akin to the franchise tag in the NFL — and trade her to her new destination to get something in return.

From Jan. 11 through Jan. 20, teams can make qualifying offers to restricted-, reserved- or core-eligible players. Negotiations officially begin Jan. 21, but players aren’t able to sign deals until Feb. 1.

How much change could we see across the league? Which other players might be on the move, and which teams could look drastically different in a few weeks? We’re about to find out. In the meantime, our ESPN WNBA experts delve into what to expect and watch for in this year’s free agency.

Aside from Sabally, who are the biggest names most likely to find a new team in free agency — and where might they land?

Alexa Philippou: I’m closely watching what happens with Kelsey Plum. Las Vegas Aces fans haven’t had to stress about free agency in recent years since the team’s core four always signed contract extensions before they hit the market. But Plum didn’t do that for 2025. There has already been so much turnover in Las Vegas, with the departures of Becky Hammon’s assistants in Natalie Nakase (to Golden State) and Tyler Marsh (to Chicago). Perhaps Plum will be the next major figure to leave — but likely not without the Aces first coring her so they can get something in return.

Kevin Pelton: Jewell Loyd isn’t a free agent, but her trade request puts her in this group. Where Loyd lands could depend on other movement. If Plum pushes to leave the Aces, for example, Loyd would be a logical replacement in a role similar to the one she played when Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart were teammates in Seattle. Alternatively, a homecoming for Loyd in Chicago would give a guard counterweight to the Sky’s young post duo of Kamilla Cardoso and Angel Reese, or Loyd could give the Golden State Valkyries a proven face of the franchise.

Michael Voepel: Brionna Jones, who has spent her eight-season WNBA career with the Connecticut Sun, is the kind of consistent, dependable veteran post player who could be a key player for a team looking to make a championship push. Perhaps the 29-year-old could reunite with her coach with the Sun the past two years, Stephanie White, in Indiana.

The free agency decisions of her Sun teammates Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner will also be closely watched. Bonner, who turns 38 in August, has won two WNBA titles with Phoenix, whereas Thomas — who will turn 33 in April and has spent her 11-season career in Connecticut — is still looking for her first title.

Which other players are you watching most closely?

Pelton: I’m watching the wing position. Free agency is flush with young point guards and veteran post players, leaving wings — particularly strong defenders — as the most scarce commodity. Now that she’ll likely be available for the start of the season, Gabby Williams is the kind of two-way role player found on title contenders. Teams that can’t land Williams will likely look at three-time Aces champion Alysha Clark and Kennedy Burke, who helped the New York Liberty to last year’s title while playing for the veteran minimum, as 3-and-D alternatives, unless they can figure out a way to get DiJonai Carrington as a restricted free agent.

Philippou: It’s possible that Connecticut’s big three — Thomas, Bonner and Jones — all move on from the organization, meaning we’re in for an entirely new era of Sun basketball beginning in 2025. While Bonner enjoyed a lengthy career in Phoenix before arriving in Uncasville, Thomas and Jones have never played for another team, so seeing them in a different uniform would take some getting used to.

Then there are players such as Diana Taurasi and Elena Delle Donne. Taurasi’s 2024 campaign was deemed potentially her last, but the 42-year-old great has yet to announce her decision on whether she’s retiring or will return to play her 21st WNBA season. Delle Donne, 35, has been in a sort of limbo after sitting out the entire 2024 season. What comes of her and her playing career?

Voepel: Sabally turns 27 in April and is in her prime, but she also comes with a big question due to the injuries she has dealt with for much of her career with Dallas. She played 38 games in her all-WNBA first-team season in 2023, but less than 20 games in each of her other four years in the league. Does a team such as Indiana put together a trade offer for Sabally as a key contributor toward a title? Or has she told the Wings about where she prefers to go?

Which team(s) will be most impacted by free agent movement?

Pelton: The Indiana Fever have the most upside in free agency. With Aliyah Boston and Caitlin Clark on rookie contracts, Indiana can afford to use the core designation on Kelsey Mitchell and add a max (or supermax) player. The Fever are set at center and in the backcourt — barring a Mitchell trade — so they should be in the mix for the top forwards on the market. I’m curious to see what kind of a draw playing with Clark is for free agents. With the right addition, Indiana can bolster its chances of winning a playoff series for the first time since reaching the Finals in 2015.

Philippou: Loyd’s trade request means the Seattle Storm enter free agency with essentially three players under contract — Skylar Diggins-Smith, Ezi Magbegor and Jordan Horston (they also have Nika Muhl but she is rehabbing an ACL injury). Task one is ensuring Nneka Ogwumike, who is ineligible to be cored, re-signs. Even if that happens, can the Storm attract another star guard to replace Loyd? And can they shore up their depth after that was an issue last year? Those questions will determine whether Seattle can truly contend or if it takes a step back from last year’s 25-15 campaign.

Voepel: The Phoenix Mercury have made the playoffs 14 of the past 16 years, but if Taurasi does retire, they will enter a new era. Center Brittney Griner is expected to re-sign with the team, where she has spent her entire 11-season career. But will the Mercury be in the market for another top-shelf free agent post? It’s hard for a team to remake its identity after a franchise icon leaves; it took Indiana until 2024 after Tamika Catchings retired in 2016. Can the Mercury land a free agent who keeps them firmly in the playoff hunt?

Which teams have the most work to do in free agency?

Pelton: Connecticut has only one starter (Tyasha Harris) from last year’s semifinalist team under contract, plus guard Marina Mabrey. Given that Carrington is restricted, the Sun have control over whether she returns, and they can use the core designation on Thomas. But Jones is fully unrestricted after being cored the past two years, as is Bonner. It also seems like larger changes might be in store after Connecticut hired Belgian national team coach Rachid Meziane as White’s replacement. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Sun pursue Belgian star Emma Meesseman if she’s interested in returning to the WNBA, but creating sufficient cap room would surely mean saying goodbye to one of their current All-Stars.

Philippou: After the Valkyries and Sun, the Chicago Sky currently have the next-most cap room and have only two players on protected deals. After just missing out on the playoffs and hiring Tyler Marsh to replace Teresa Weatherspoon as head coach, GM Jeff Pagliocca is tasked with building a stronger cast to surround Reese and Cardoso. Can he lure any top talent? Chicago is in desperate need of some 3-point shooters in particular. And how much of a priority will it actually be to re-sign Chennedy Carter?

Voepel: The Atlanta Dream don’t necessarily have a lot of work to do — they have seven players under contract, including standouts Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray — but with a new coach in Karl Smesko, what changes might they make in free agency that maximizes what this team can be? The Dream made the playoffs last season, but Tanisha Wright still lost her job as head coach (she’s now an assistant with the Sky). Is Atlanta seen as an appealing free agent destination?

How will Golden State impact free agency this year?

Pelton: The Valkyries are going to drive up salaries around the league. They enter with a league-high $1.2 million in cap space, per HerHoopStats.com data, meaning they’ll be on the hunt for stars. Depending on how many of them it lands, Golden State could be aggressive in targeting role players — or force other teams to pay more to replace the key contributors they’ve lost to the Valkyries. Either way, the addition of a 13th team is good news for free agents.

Philippou: I expect the Valkyries to look to take some big swings in free agency this year. Even if they don’t get everyone they want in 2025, this January might be just the precursor of what’s to come with the majority of the league becoming available come 2026. In a way, this year could be about proving to players and the rest of the WNBA how seriously they’re taking owner Joe Lacob’s goal of winning a championship in five years.

Voepel: The WNBA hasn’t had a true expansion team since the Dream in 2008. They struggled that year, going 4-30, but drafted Angel McCoughtry No. 1 in 2009 and subsequently made the playoffs. Atlanta was then in the WNBA Finals in 2010, 2011 and 2013. This was long before the far more robust free agency movement that came with the 2020 collective bargaining agreement, but it shows a new team can make an impact quickly — and we know there is a big push from Golden State management to make that happen.

What’s your bold prediction for free agency?

Pelton: The Valkyries trade a package including the No. 5 pick to land Plum as the face of the franchise — reuniting her with former Aces assistant coach Nakase, now Golden State’s head coach.

Philippou: We’ll see at least three big-name stars get cored and then traded to other franchises.

Voepel: The appeal of playing with young stars Clark and Boston, plus the fan excitement around Indiana now, will help the Fever land a big name in free agency or via trade — something that would have seemed very unlikely a couple of years ago.