ESPN’s countdown of the NBA’s best 100 players is nearly complete, with the top-10 list set to be released Thursday.
This season’s edition of NBA Rank — with Nos. 100-11 unveiled — has had plenty of surprises, and the complete list will provide a lot for fans to discuss before the 2024-25 regular season tips off Tuesday. Before we see who makes the top 10, our expert panel is breaking down this year’s ranking so far. Victor Wembanyama had a remarkable rookie season, but has the 7-foot-4 star big man reached truly elite status? Which players might have a tough task living up to their rating? What about those who might have been overlooked? And what about the Hall of Fame trio of LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant?
Ahead of Thursday’s unveiling of the top-10 list, we’re hitting on the biggest surprises, snubs and top questions so far from our NBA Rank 100.
Victor Wembanyama’s No. 11 ranking was _____.
Michael C. Wright: Exactly where it needs to be for a 20-year-old fresh off a historic rookie campaign that compared favorably to the first seasons of Spurs Hall of Fame big men David Robinson and Tim Duncan. We can project all we want based on the eye-popping numbers Wembanyama dropped last season, as he’ll now pair up with future Hall of Fame point guard Chris Paul. But we just don’t know exactly how Wembanyama will perform in Year 2. But his remarkable potential is precisely why the whole world will be tuned in to watch him every night.
André Snellings: Conservative. Wembanyama might be the 11th-best player in the league this season, and that is a reasonable spot for him. But I think that’s his healthy floor. For his ceiling, he also could be the best two-way player in the league already as a sophomore. A slight improvement on Wemby’s numbers during the second half of the season would give him averages of 26 points, 12 rebounds and 6 assists along with 4.5 blocks and 2 steals per game. A player would likely make All-NBA on that offensive production alone, but that could also put Wembanyama in the running for Defensive Player of the Year. He could reasonably achieve those numbers, which would make him underrated at No. 11.
Matt Williams: Justified after his incredible rookie year. Wembanyama recorded a 40-point, 20-rebound game, a 5×5 game and a 10-block game in one season — something only Anthony Davis and Hakeem Olajuwon accomplished in a career since blocks and steals became official during the 1973-74 season. Even Wembanyama’s presence caused problems as he led the league in deters at the rim, per SIS tracking data. He also became the first player with 250 blocks and 100 3-pointers in a season. His 3-point shooting will be an interesting piece of his game to watch as he shot 29% on catch-and-shoot 3s but an efficient 38% when off the dribble last season, per Second Spectrum.
Baxter Holmes: It’s a number that looks fair and justified as the season is about to begin, but it could easily look too low if he resumes the tear that he showed after the All-Star break. And that’s not taking into account that he’ll have Paul making the game easier for him. There are so many striking stats from his rookie campaign — he had two games with 30 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 blocks — but he clearly started to realize, as the season progressed, that there was little anyone could do to stop him. After his proclamation at the Olympics about worrying for his opponents as he improves, I expect him to take a huge leap forward as he becomes a dominant a two-way player.
Jorge Sedano: Too low. I think Wembanyama could average 24 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists, nearly 4 blocks and 1 steal per game. If he hits on those marks, he would have similar or better numbers to Olajuwon in his second season. Olajuwon was also nearly two years older at that stage of his career but finished fourth in MVP voting that year. Wembanyama will have a year of NBA offseason training under his belt with a great organization, natural growth to his game and a few veterans to help him in his journey in Paul and Harrison Barnes. Wembanyama is my preseason favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, and I believe he will finish in the top five in MVP voting.
Name a player who should have been ranked inside the top 50.
Snellings: Draymond Green (No. 66), whose impact on winning still remains one of the biggest in the sport. Despite the incidents and suspensions that have piled up in recent years, the 34-year-old Green remains an elite defender and a primary playmaker for the Golden State Warriors. Last season, the Warriors outscored their opponents by 5.6 points per 100 possessions when Green was on the court — the highest average of any of the team’s starters. It was even more in the previous season (7.3 points per 100 possessions). Green remains one of the biggest impact players in the NBA and is certainly one of the top 50.
Sedano: Green. Professor Snellings laid out the analytical approach, and I will lay it out very simply: He impacts winning. The Warriors were 13-14 in games Green didn’t play last season but 33-22 in games he did. If you extrapolate that over the season it would’ve made the Warriors the sixth seed in the West, avoiding the play-in. Opponents scored six more points per game and shot 3% better against the Warriors in the games he didn’t play. That doesn’t even account for his ball handling, playmaking and other intangibles. The four-time champion is still one of the more impactful players in the sport.
Holmes: Josh Hart (No. 61). One of the most dynamic and remarkable things to watch in the postseason was how a 6-foot-4 guard managed to be such a rebounding force for the New York Knicks. He’d fly into the lane and somehow come away with rebounds in traffic — especially on the offensive end, giving the Knicks extra possessions. He averaged 14.5 points and 11.5 rebounds in the postseason, aiding a team that was beset by injuries. I’m curious to see how newly acquired Karl-Anthony Towns helps the Knicks’ rebounding efforts, especially given the offseason departures of center Isaiah Hartenstein and forward Julius Randle, along with Mitchell Robinson not returning until January from his ankle procedures. But it’s safe to say Hart will again be a consequential figure in the Knicks’ efforts to reach their first Eastern Conference finals since 2000.
Wright: Herb Jones (No. 97). It’s understandable now why the New Orleans Pelicans feel the need to print up shirts to get the word out about their young, defensive stopper. Jones earned a spot on the NBA’s All-Defensive first team last season alongside more notable names, such as Bam Adebayo, Anthony Davis, Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert. Of those four players, only Gobert ranks outside the top 20 at No. 34. LaMelo Ball is at No. 50 pot despite playing in a total of 58 games these last two seasons. So, let’s please put a little respect on Jones’ name here.
Williams: Franz Wagner (No. 52) signed a max rookie extension with the Orlando Magic following a season in which he averaged career highs in points, rebounds, assists and steals. Wagner was also crucial in the Magic winning 47 games, their most in a season since the 2010-11 campaign. Wagner finding his jump shot again will be critical moving forward, however. He ranked last in 3-point field goal percentage among qualified players in 2023-24. According to Second Spectrum tracking, Wagner shot 29% on jumpers in the regular season and playoffs, the worst in a season by any player with at least 400 attempts in the past 10 years.
James, Curry and Durant are in the top 10. Do they still belong?
Sedano: Put aside that they have been the best players of this generation and look at the numbers they put up last season. What James is doing is simply unprecedented at this stage of his career. The fact that you can still pencil him in for an efficient 25 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists is incredible. Curry finished first in the league in 3-pointers made last season with a roster that was in flux. In Durant’s case, he had a roster riddled with injuries and had to carry a far larger burden on defense with the Suns than he has had to recently. He took that on willingly and succeeded.
Williams: Definitely, all three players continue to be the model of consistency in the NBA. There were only two players to average 25 points while shooting 50% from the field and 40% on 3-pointers last season, and they were James and Durant. Curry made 357 3-pointers, the third most in a season in league history. Prior to 2023-24, there had never been an instance in which multiple players age 35 or older averaged 25 points in the same season. James, Durant and Curry all did that this past season.
Wright: Absolutely. All three made the All-NBA team and for good reason, given the critical roles each has for their teams. James enters Year 22 having logged the second-most career regular-season minutes (56,597). Is there any real decline in his game? Let’s not forget that last season, at age 39, he played 71 games. Curry dropped 28 30-point performances during a 2023-24 campaign in which he turned 36 while leading the NBA in clutch points on the way to earning Clutch Player of the Year. Durant, meanwhile, shook durability concerns last season to play 75 games, averaging 27.1 points. None of these guys look anywhere close to done.
Snellings: All three have an argument to be top 10, and all three are OGs who deserve their flowers. I’m fine with them there for those reasons. But, if we step outside of name and career contribution to the sport, I think others might have better arguments than Durant. Based on last season, Knicks guard Jalen Brunson deserves to be in the top 10. And Durant’s teammate Devin Booker, who also isn’t in the top 10, is arguably the best player on the Phoenix Suns. Durant remains one of the most efficient volume scorers the game has seen, but strong arguments can be made that at least 10 others are currently doing more than he is.
Holmes: If you took their ages out of it and simply examined their statistics from last season, this wouldn’t really be up for debate. Yes, they deserve their top-10 rankings. James remained one of the most dominant all-around players in the game last season, averaging 25.7 points, 8.3 assists and 7.3 rebounds. Curry averaged 26.4 points — and if there was any doubt of his greatness, just rewatch his Olympics performance in Paris. And Durant played his most regular-season games (75) since rupturing an Achilles in Golden State and, along the way, averaged 27.1 points. These are truly dominant players, regardless of age, but their age makes their dominance all the more remarkable. They are reframing what is possible for NBA players at this stage of their career.
Which player will most outperform his ranking this season?
Holmes: Zion Williamson. At No. 27, he has the most potential to far outperform his ranking if he remains healthy for the Pelicans and if he’s as consistently dominant as he has shown himself to be in stretches. The term “unstoppable” is often overused, but when he’s at his best, there doesn’t seem much anyone can do to slow someone with his size, strength and agility from doing what he wants around the rim, or elsewhere in the half court. At times in the paint, he has looked, yes, Shaq-like — and he’s still just 24. Williamson played 70 regular-season games last season — his most yet — and he seems poised for taking a leap and becoming the player who was so hyped coming out of Duke.
Snellings: LaMelo Ball (No. 50). This is, essentially, just a bet that he stays reasonably healthy for the Charlotte Hornets this season. Ball was the Rookie of the Year in 2020-21, then made his first All-Star team as a second-year player. But in the two seasons since, injuries have limited him to only 56 of a possible 164 games. Ball’s game has continued to improve — he’s a better, more efficient scorer with better creative floor vision and execution now than as a rookie. If he can play the majority of his games this season, Ball should comfortably be a top-25 player.
Wright: Fred VanVleet. His rank at No. 79 sure feels low for a guy tasked with taking the lead in helping the Houston Rockets establish an entirely new culture under coach Ime Udoka while playing an instrumental role in the growth of young guards Jalen Green and Reed Sheppard. In VanVleet’s first season in Houston, the Rockets finished 41-41, a 19-win increase over the previous season, which ranked as the largest jump for any team in the NBA. Yet he somehow fell 23 spots after averaging a career high in assists (8.1)? As usual, VanVleet will bet on himself again in 2024-25 and win big.
Sedano: Keegan Murray at No. 94? Let’s rewind for a moment here: The Sacramento Kings forward had a strong rookie season in 2022-23, shooting 41% from 3 and finishing in the top five in Rookie of the Year voting. Last season, he took on the role of guarding other teams’ best players — with a small tick down in his offensive efficiency. In Year 3, he’s poised to be one of the better two-way players in the NBA. I was blown away by how easy the game came to him on both ends when I watched him in preseason action against Golden State. Defensively, he was impressive with five steals and impactful with his individual perimeter defense. The Kings have a star in the making.
Williams: Herb Jones. His defense alone is worth a better ranking than 97th. He is one of the best one-on-one defenders, ranking in the top 10 in points allowed per direct isolation among players to defend at least 125 isolations last season, per Second Spectrum. That will be key as the Pelicans switch more when a traditional center is not on the floor. And don’t sleep on Jones’ offense, as he led the NBA in 3-point field goal percentage from Jan. 1 to the end of the season among players with 100 attempts.
Which player is ranked too high on this list?
Wright: James Harden at No. 41. Admittedly, this could turn out to be premature (and perhaps just wrong), but he gets a shot again at being “a system” for the LA Clippers in the wake of Paul George’s departure and Kawhi Leonard’s expected load management. We’re likely to find out the 2018 MVP is no longer capable of carrying a team on a consistent basis, especially in the rough-and-tumble Western Conference, where we’ve seen five different teams over the past five years advance to the NBA Finals.
Williams: We will need to see how the season shakes out for the 82nd-ranked Mitchell Robinson. With his season debut not expected until January, his role will change with Karl-Anthony Towns now on the Knicks. Robinson will continue to be a key depth contributor with the Knicks, though, especially on the offensive glass as well as on defense using drop coverage on pick-and-rolls.
Sedano: Robinson’s ranking also was a surprise, mostly because he is currently unavailable as he works back from his injuries. You know the saying: “The best ability is availability.”
Holmes: Brandin Podziemski was a great find for the Warriors with the 19th pick in last year’s draft, and he quickly established himself as an impact rookie on a veteran team. And I expect his role to expand even more this season. But I’m not sure that he’s the 78th-best player in the NBA — at least just yet. The 6-foot-4 guard averaged 9.2 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists last season — all impressive numbers for a player who came off the bench in many games. And the Warriors raved about him privately. He could, in time, establish himself as one of the top 75 players in the league, but I’m not sure he’s there just yet. (I’d happily be proved wrong here.)
Snellings: Dereck Lively II at No. 56. Not because I don’t think he can be that good, but because I’m not sure he’s even the most valuable center on the Dallas Mavericks at this moment. Daniel Gafford, who is unranked, seems likely to still be the starting center for the Mavericks this season with Lively coming off the bench. While Lively was a better matchup against the Boston Celtics in the Finals, Gafford was the man in the middle for the Mavs in the previous two rounds. Lively should only get better as his role on the Mavericks increases, but his ranking might still be a bit high for him.
